Bank of Canada to make interest rate announcement Wednesday
"Higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target", the central bank said in its rate statement.
Today is the most important day, and we'll see the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates, as well as the Bank's Monetary Policy Report.
The Bank of Canada will decide today whether to continue raising interest rates, and will issue its latest predictions for the Canadian economy.
The latest rate decision comes at a time of moderating growth following a strong 2017.
Poloz, however, said that despite the recent improvements, the economy's still unable to continue running at full tilt without the stimulative power of lower rates, at least for a little longer.
He listed four downward forces still weighing on the economy - all of which have come under close scrutiny by a central bank that has been describing itself as data dependent.
Two of these sources of uncertainty - inflation and wage growth - were highlighted as areas showing particular progress. The unspoken message was that the central bank could live with inflation above the mid-point for a while, too, without feeling compelled to raise interest rates sooner, or faster.
The bank's estimate of first-quarter growth fell to 1.3 percent from 2.5 percent in January, but it forecasted a rebound in the second quarter resulting in 2 percent growth over the first half of 2018.
What sector will play the biggest role in shaping Canada's economy this year?
Investors predict Poloz may raise borrowing costs twice more this year, which would bring the benchmark rate to 1.75 percent, still below what the bank considers a "neutral level" of between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. Consistent with an economy operating with little slack, core measures of inflation have continued to edge up and are all now close to 2 per cent.
The target for the overnight rate, which impacts rates that Canadian consumers and businesses get from retail banks for savings accounts and debt such as mortgages and lines of credit, remains at 1.25 per cent, the central bank announced.
Poloz reiterated Wednesday the bank would remain cautious when it comes to future increases.
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"We expect the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged, in line with a almost universal consensus".
Turning to most recent NAFTA news, the three sides are set to meet in Washington this Thursday.
The bank also warned that escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts risk undermining the global expansion.
The optimism was everywhere in the documents, even as the central bank acknowledged geopolitical uncertainties and the potential competitiveness impact of USA tax reforms as a drag on investment and exports.
Since then, there has been fresh fear that if inflation slows and wage growth picks up, BoE policymakers may refrain from acting due to the economy "self-regulating".
Business investment is expected to expand modestly, despite trade uncertainty and competitive challenges.
The bank expects oil prices to stay near recent levels throughout its projection horizon.
After all, it was the April meeting that currency traders first began to eye for the next hike back in January, before markets became less confident in their outlook for Canadian monetary policy and began betting another move would not follow until May or July this year.
For 2018, it's now predicting two per cent growth, as measured by real gross domestic product, compared to its 2.2 per cent prediction in January.
That rate represents a drop from the three per cent growth in 2017. The bank had been anticipating such moderation.
However, the bank also raised its growth projection for 2019 to 2.1 per cent, up from its previous prediction of 1.6 per cent.
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