India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that is responsible for fixing benchmark index rates in the country, which so far favoured a wait-and-watch approach on interest rates, may see 2 of its 8 members vote for a rate hike at its next meeting to be held on June 5-6. His deputy Viral Acharya turned more hawkish, saying he is likely to shift decisively to vote for a beginning of "withdrawal of accommodation" in the next MPC meeting in June.
"Does it present a persuasive case for an easier/neutral monetary policy stance?" Observing that "an inflation targeting central bank needs to separate "signal" from "noise" in the data", Dr. Acharya said the recent softening of prices was mainly due to vegetables and that there was nothing to suggest it was due to durable supply management. "The minutes of the MPC's meeting has a distinctly hawkish tinge as compared to our reading of the statement itself", said Aditi Nayar, the principal economist of rating agency Icra. The elephant in the room-minimum support price hike-has been recognized and called out by all. In his comments, the governor has also come out as rather optimistic on growth.
Governor Urjit Patel said there are clear signs of revival in the manufacturing sector strengthening. The manufacturing sector is strengthening, which is also reflected in higher capacity utilisation. That may boost flagging investments and demand, both of which were hit by a cash ban imposed in late 2016 and the chaotic implementation of a consumption tax previous year.
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Dua said that with upside risks to inflation and lacklustre growth prospects, a wait and watch strategy is now recommended. "However, going by the projected inflation path, probability of a rate hike in August has increased", he said. "The size of the MSP policy will determine the duration of the pause".
On 5 April, MPC chose to keep rates on hold with 5 of the 6 members voting in favour of the decision. "Too generous and the RBI will have to consider sacrificing urban consumption and investment growth to meet its inflation objective", he said. The other members besides Patel and Acharya who voted for a pause were Chetan Ghate, Pami Dua and Ravindra Dholakia.
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