It's Trump's move in Iran chess match
In a nutshell, in 2015 Iran agreed to give up elements of a nuclear weapons program - which it said it never had - until sunset clauses that expire in 2025 and 2030. Another basket of sanctions waivers are up for renewal on July 11, focusing on more than 400 specific Iranian companies, individuals and business sectors. This was essential, both as a test of Tehran's sincerity and as a benchmark for understanding just how close it was to being able to assemble and deliver a nuclear warhead. Whilst it is true that Iran is often on the opposite side of America's interests in these countries, this part of Iran's behaviour was not subject to the JCPOA. "But as far as we know now, they are keeping the deal, and if they're not keeping the deal, we still can't prove it".
That's the significance of Benjamin Netanyahu's show-and-tell Monday of what appears to be a big cache of pilfered Iranian documents detailing Tehran's nuclear work.
Yet it's hard to imagine that the IAEA can now square Iran's 2015 declaration with what the Israelis have uncovered. According to the South Carolina Republican senator, Lindsey Graham, who ran an unsuccessful campaign to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, and who led a high-powered delegation to Israel in February, "Iran needs to pay a heavier price - they are encircling our Arab allies and the state of Israel".
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed on Monday that Israeli spies had smuggled out of Iran some 100,000 archived documents and files detailing Tehran's nuclear weapons ambitions and research in the years prior to the signing of the deal.
As for Iran's current compliance, of course it's complying. He ought to realise that, sometimes, a flawed deal is better than no deal at all.
"If the USA, as its president has repeatedly stated, announces its withdrawal from this agreement ... we all, the global community, will lose one of the most important tools that contributes to ensuring the non-proliferation regime for weapons of mass destruction", Lavrov said at a press conference.
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He also described USA sanctions as "bullying", although the restrictions are aimed at curbing Iran's financing of Islamic terror groups such as Hezbollah. And it allows Iran to produce all the nuclear fuel it wants come the end of the next decade.
European delegations reportedly described the secret information obtained by the Mossad relating to Iran's nuclear weapons program as "highly significant", after they were presented with the material by their Israeli counterparts, Walla news reported citing an Israeli political source.
With Trump raising the possibility that three more American citizens could come home from North Korea ahead of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the Trump administration and its diplomats should be doing everything in their power to bring back fellow citizens unjustly held in Iran, too.
Even if that means he is secretly colluding with Iran to salvage it. Meaning Iran would endure from misplaced enterprise and will determine to stroll away from the deal itself. "In the a year ago or so, we've been told that President Trump is unhappy with the deal, and it now appears that the response from some Europeans has been to offer the United States more concessions, from our pocket", said Iran's top diplomat.
What ought to happen is that the president should continue to comply with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, even as the USA and its European allies discuss ways to strengthen the agreement. I do not believe this agreement can be fixed - we need a complete reset. Punitive sanctions combined with a credible threat of military force should follow.
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