Some 2018 Oscar Winners Could Make History

Some 2018 Oscar Winners Could Make History

Some 2018 Oscar Winners Could Make History

I'll be cheering on the breathtaking and revolutionary "The Shape of Water". This means that end-of-season awards chatter invariably involves tortured speculation about which film would most likely be voters' second or third favorite, and then equally tortured conclusions about which film might prevail.

So, here's my attempt to predict what might happen in 12 major categories when the envelopes are opened.

"I don't see somebody who loved it suddenly hating it because of something they saw on the internet or vice versa", said The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg. "Three Billboards" won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but it leaves audiences divided. Also, "The Shape of Water" could only have been made by him.

There is no doubt that last year's Oscars ceremony ended on a very weird note, with Warren Beatty reading the wrong movie, La La Land, as the victor of Best Picture, when the real victor was Moonlight.

Allison Janney portrays Tonya Harding's mother in "I, Tonya".

This image released by Fox Searchlight Pictures shows Sally Hawkins (left) and Doug Jones in a scene from the film "The Shape of Water".

Daniel Kaluuya scored a best actor Oscar nomination for his work in the social thriller 'Get Out'.

Dunkirk was also a favourite in three races - although all technical categories - while Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour and Pixar animation Coco were expected to pick up two statuettes each.

Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf ("Lady Bird") delivered a attractive nuanced performance as a middle-aged Catholic mom struggling to relate to her complex teenage daughter in a film that got everything right about the complicated yet loving relationships between parents and teens. It's followed by Dunkirk with eight and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with seven.

Should Win: Lesley Manville upstaged Daniel Day-Lewis (in a good way) as the steadfast Cyril, who can be sometimes terrifying and often amusing and without whom "Phantom Thread" would have come crashing to the ground.

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Should Win: "Lady Bird" is the movie I want to watch over and over again. William Hurt won an Academy Award in 1986 for playing a transgendered man in Kiss of the Spider Woman. It is imbued with themes of authoritarian control and desire for freedom that I think the Academy would be incredibly attracted to, especially in the current political climate.

Coyle: Will Win: Janney, a riot in "I, Tonya", is the favorite.

That's all the more important because some of our new members say they ran into interference from an older, more traditional wing of the Academy when it came to evaluating Peele's movie.

Loren King is an arts and entertainment writer whose work appears regularly in The Boston Globe and other publications. The other contender in this category is called Faces Paces. At this point, "Lady Bird" and "Get Out", the two presumptive runners-up, have shown no momentum to catapult over the frontrunners.

Hopefully, by the time they're done navigating these waters, they will have a greater clarity not only how to nominate roles but how to distinguish between a worthy performance and when someone has been around long enough to earn the head nod. Then there's the well-liked "The Big Sick", with its surprising mix of comedy and poignancy.

I did love "Call Me By Your Name" though. Certainly "Icarus", about the Russian Olympics doping scandal, is the timeliest. "Film brings so many art forms together".

"The Square", from Sweden, had early momentum, but its absurdist slant isn't to everyone's taste.

Though the most deserving performance may be that of Timothée Chalamet.

Jordan Peele's "Get Out" and Greta Gerwig's "Lady Bird" are both first-feature films that could make history for either African Americans or women. But I'll say Day-Lewis is simply the best there is.

Prediction: "Remember Me", Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez.

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